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Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Assessment PDF Print E-mail

(Myanmar Action Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction 2009-2015
Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement Department)

Rationale

Any effective disaster management planning including preparedness and mitigation require specific information on hazard, the underlying vulnerability and the associated risks in relation to communities, infrastructure, livelihood, etc. The component aims to prepare hazard specific risk maps, using latest scientific methodology for whole country at various levels, which will act as decision making tool for prioritization of risk reduction interventions and development planning. It will also take into account the future risks arising from climate change as it looks set to increase the incidence of droughts and floods and the intensity of windstorms.

Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Planning Department of MNPED, Myanmar Engineering Society, Myanmar Geosciences Society, Engineering Geology Department of Yangon Technological University (YTU) and Dry Zone Greening Department will lead this component under the guidance of NDPCC. Fire Services Department, Forest Department, Department of Health, Relief and Resettlement Department and MIMU will assist the lead agencies in accordance with their area of expertise. The nine common natural hazards of Myanmar namely cyclone, drought, earthquake, fire, flood, forest fire, landslide, storm surge and tsunami will be prioritized. The comprehensive risk Atlas will be based on probabilistic and deterministic methodology.

Planned Sub-Components

Sub-Component 2.1: Vulnerability and Risk Assessment at various Levels

The first step is to prepare the guidelines on comprehensive vulnerability and risk assessment in line with NDPCC’s plan. The task will be jointly undertaken by RRD and DMH. The guidelines will describe step by step assessment methodology starting from the Ward/Village Tract levels, how the outcomes can be analyzed and the systematic reporting t various levels. The guideline will also underline the assessment of such special interest groups as persons with disability and mentally challenged elderly, women and children.

Based on the guidelines, Trainings of Trainers (ToT) on vulnerability and risk assessment will be designed and delivered in 24 townships, spread over four geographical regions: coastal, delta, low-land plain and mountainous. The trainings will be organized in partnership between Planning Department, Department of Social Welfare, RRD, GAD, DMH, Department of Health, Irrigation Department, UN Agencies, MIMU and NGOs. The criteria for selection of townships will be (1) the township is located in the vulnerable location, (2) the township faces more than one hazard, and (3) the respective township Disaster Preparedness Committee expresses interest in taking up the pilot project. Myanmar Action Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction [MAPDRR] - 17 - The trained personnel will then provide 2 more multiplier trainings in each township (48 altogether) for the community, part of which consists of actual data collection at the ground level. The compiled data will be utilized for mapping township risk and vulnerability scenarios. The State and Divisional level Planning Department will further draft a plan of expansion to cover the remaining Townships within their jurisdiction.

Sub-Component 2.2: Hazard and Vulnerability Atlas of Myanmar

The information collected under sub-component (2.1) ‘Vulnerability and Risk Assessment atTownship Levels’ will be compiled in a national level database to be hosted and maintained by Planning Department, MNPED in collaboration with Forest Department and DMH. The accumulated data will be utilized to generate the Hazard and Vulnerability Atlas of Myanmar at four different levels and scales: national, regional (coastal, delta, low-land plain, mountainous), District and Township. A system will be set up to ensure regular updates of the data and the Atlas every five years.

Sub-Component 2.3: Landslide Hazard Zonation Map

Under this sub-component, a plan will be devised to collect data on slope stability and risks at landslide prone locations in the country and the resulting data will be applied to revise the existing landslide hazard zonation map and Myanmar Earthquake Committee (MEC) will play role. The completed Map will afford valuable information in such development activities as rural and urban planning. A database system with up-to-date information will be established and maintained by MEC, with technical support from DMH, Department of Public Works, Myanmar Geosciences Society and Engineering Geology Department of YTU.

Sub-Component 2.4: Flood Risk Map

Department of Health, together with DMH, has identified 48 flood prone Townships in Myanmar based on the rainfall data and past flood events; to help them plan for emergency operations. The flood risk map to be prepared under this sub-component will build upon this existing initiative. With the technical support of MIMU, a system will be established to receive and update the map based on data provided by DMH, Department of Water Resources and Improvement of River System (DWRIRS) and Irrigation Department.

Sub-Component 2.5: Drought Prone Area Map

The Dry Zone Greening Department is currently implementing programs in 55 Townships identified as arid zone. Therefore, derived from this available data together with the drought prone area classification and the historical rainfall data, other drought prone townships will be identified and a drought prone area map will be prepared. The map can be used for food security programmes by Department of Agricultural Planning and Irrigation Department (link to sub-component (5.8) ‘Sustainable Development in Dry Zone’), Health Department for potential malnutrition cases and Livestock Breeding and Veterinary Department for animal health schemes and DMH.

Sub-Component 2.6: Cyclone and Storm Surge Map

Under this sub-component, it is expected that two maps will be prepared; cyclone and storm surge inundation map of Rakhine State and a map for the entire coastline of Myanmar, using historical data. DMH and MIMU already have extensive amount of data with regards to past cyclones and their impacts and they can jointly develop and maintain the maps. The resulting maps can help in coastal development projects and programs planning (link to subcomponent

Sub-Component 2.7: Seismic Zonation of Myanmar

This sub-component envisages to advance the data collection and interpretation capacity of Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) on seismic occurrences, from the data to be obtained under sub-component (3.8) ‘Seismic Monitoring’. Recently, Myanmar Earthquake ommittee has produced the seismic zonation maps (Year 2006) of Myanmar and major ities of Mandalay-Amarapura, Bago-Oaktha and Taunggyi. This sub-component will support the development and maintenance of a database of seismic information, programmed to be updated regularly with direct feed from the various seismic stations over the country. As a result, the existing maps will be updated systematically and the maps of more major cities, situated along or near the fault line, will also be prepared.

Sub-Component 2.8: Wider Usage of Fire Hazard Zonation Map

The existing Fire Hazard Zonation map of Myanmar is prepared by the Fire Services Department based on past fire cases. This sub-component plans to promote wider usage of the existing map by FSD, Forest Department, Department of Human Settlement and Housing Development and, Department of Health, RRD, Department of Transport, Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise, etc. In order to do so, a survey on the needs of potential users will be carried out and their feedback on the existing map will be collected. The inputs, once compiled, will help in the revision of the map. Anticipated requests and suggestions include combining population density map with fire hazard map or creating a fire hazard map showing water sources or production of specific fire hazard map of major cities and towns. Rationale Any effective disaster management planning including preparedness and mitigation require specific information on hazard, the underlying vulnerability and the associated risks in relation to communities, infrastructure, livelihood, etc. The component aims to prepare hazard specific risk maps, using latest scientific methodology for whole country at various levels, which will act as decision making tool for prioritization of risk reduction interventions and development planning. It will also take into account the future risks arising from climate change as it looks set to increase the incidence of droughts and floods and the intensity of windstorms.

Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Planning Department of MNPED, Myanmar Engineering Society, Myanmar Geosciences Society, Engineering Geology Department of Yangon Technological University (YTU) and Dry Zone Greening Department will lead this component under the guidance of NDPCC. Fire Services Department, Forest Department, Department of Health, Relief and Resettlement Department and MIMU will assist the lead agencies in accordance with their area of expertise. The nine common natural hazards of Myanmar namely cyclone, drought, earthquake, fire, flood, forest fire, landslide, storm surge and tsunami will be prioritized. The comprehensive risk Atlas will be based on probabilistic and deterministic methodology.

Planned Sub-Components

Sub-Component 2.1: Vulnerability and Risk Assessment at various Levels

The first step is to prepare the guidelines on comprehensive vulnerability and risk assessment in line with NDPCC’s plan. The task will be jointly undertaken by RRD and DMH. The guidelines will describe step by step assessment methodology starting from the Ward/Village Tract levels, how the outcomes can be analyzed and the systematic reporting at various levels. The guideline will also underline the assessment of such special interest groups as persons with disability and mentally challenged elderly, women and children.

Based on the guidelines, Trainings of Trainers (ToT) on vulnerability and risk assessment will be designed and delivered in 24 townships, spread over four geographical regions: coastal, delta, low-land plain and mountainous. The trainings will be organized in partnership between Planning Department, Department of Social Welfare, RRD, GAD, DMH, Department of Health, Irrigation Department, UN Agencies, MIMU and NGOs. The criteria for selection of townships will be (1) the township is located in the vulnerable location, (2) the township faces more than one hazard, and (3) the respective township Disaster Preparedness Committee expresses interest in taking up the pilot project.

The trained personnel will then provide 2 more multiplier trainings in each township (48 altogether) for the community, part of which consists of actual data collection at the ground level. The compiled data will be utilized for mapping township risk and vulnerability scenarios. The State and Divisional level Planning Department will further draft a plan of expansion to cover the remaining Townships within their jurisdiction.

Sub-Component 2.2: Hazard and Vulnerability Atlas of Myanmar

The information collected under sub-component (2.1) ‘Vulnerability and Risk Assessment at Township Levels’ will be compiled in a national level database to be hosted and maintained by Planning Department, MNPED in collaboration with Forest Department and DMH. The accumulated data will be utilized to generate the Hazard and Vulnerability Atlas of Myanmar at four different levels and scales: national, regional (coastal, delta, low-land plain, mountainous), District and Township. A system will be set up to ensure regular updates of the data and the Atlas every five years.

Sub-Component 2.3: Landslide Hazard Zonation Map

Under this sub-component, a plan will be devised to collect data on slope stability and risks at landslide prone locations in the country and the resulting data will be applied to revise the existing landslide hazard zonation map and Myanmar Earthquake Committee (MEC) will play role. The completed Map will afford valuable information in such development activities as rural and urban planning. A database system with up-to-date information will be established and maintained by MEC, with technical support from DMH, Department of Public Works, Myanmar Geosciences Society and Engineering Geology Department of YTU.

Sub-Component 2.4: Flood Risk Map

Department of Health, together with DMH, has identified 48 flood prone Townships in Myanmar based on the rainfall data and past flood events; to help them plan for emergency operations. The flood risk map to be prepared under this sub-component will build upon this existing initiative. With the technical support of MIMU, a system will be established to receive and update the map based on data provided by DMH, Department of Water Resources and Improvement of River System (DWRIRS) and Irrigation Department.

Sub-Component 2.5: Drought Prone Area Map

The Dry Zone Greening Department is currently implementing programs in 55 Townships identified as arid zone. Therefore, derived from this available data together with the drought prone area classification and the historical rainfall data, other drought prone townships will be identified and a drought prone area map will be prepared. The map can be used for food security programmes by Department of Agricultural Planning and Irrigation Department (link to sub-component (5.8) ‘Sustainable Development in Dry Zone’), Health Department for potential malnutrition cases and Livestock Breeding and Veterinary Department for animal health schemes and DMH.

Sub-Component 2.6: Cyclone and Storm Surge Map

Under this sub-component, it is expected that two maps will be prepared; cyclone and storm surge inundation map of Rakhine State and a map for the entire coastline of Myanmar, using historical data. DMH and MIMU already have extensive amount of data with regards to past cyclones and their impacts and they can jointly develop and maintain the maps. The resulting maps can help in coastal development projects and programs planning (link to subcomponent (5.3) Sustainable Coastal Development to Protect against Natural Disasters).

Sub-Component 2.7: Seismic Zonation of Myanmar

This sub-component envisages to advance the data collection and interpretation capacity of Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) on seismic occurrences, from the data to be obtained under sub-component (3.8) ‘Seismic Monitoring’. Recently, Myanmar Earthquake Committee has produced the seismic zonation maps (Year 2006) of Myanmar and major cities of Mandalay-Amarapura, Bago-Oaktha and Taunggyi. This sub-component will support the development and maintenance of a database of seismic information, programmed to be updated regularly with direct feed from the various seismic stations over the country. As a result, the existing maps will be updated systematically and the maps of more major cities, situated along or near the fault line, will also be prepared.

Sub-Component 2.8: Wider Usage of Fire Hazard Zonation Map

The existing Fire Hazard Zonation map of Myanmar is prepared by the Fire Services Department based on past fire cases. This sub-component plans to promote wider usage of the existing map by FSD, Forest Department, Department of Human Settlement and Housing Development and, Department of Health, RRD, Department of Transport, Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise, etc. In order to do so, a survey on the needs of potential users will be carried out and their feedback on the existing map will be collected. The inputs, once compiled, will help in the revision of the map. Anticipated requests and suggestions include combining population density map with fire hazard map or creating a fire hazard map showing water sources or production of specific fire hazard map of major cities and towns.